I have been working on analyzing data from previous NFL drafts (1997-2020) to determine if there is value in retaining vs trading a draft pick. I also analyzed the value an undrafted player may have compared to a drafted player. The recent trading frenzy around the league, and reactions across social media to teams trading draft picks, piqued my interest and I wanted to see if teams were returning positive or negative value by giving up draft picks. There were two main categories I used to evaluate the success of a player: # of Pro Bowl selections (PB) and # of 1st Team All-Pro selections (AP1). Here is what I found:

• A team is better off drafting a player that may develop to a Pro Bowl level at these positions: QB, TE, DT, DE
  ·  A team has a higher probability of signing an undrafted Pro Bowl caliber player than drafting one after Rounds 1 & 2 at these positions: LB, DB
  ·  A team has a higher probability of signing an undrafted Pro Bowl caliber player than drafting one after Rounds 3 & 4 at these positions: RB, WR, OL
  ·  A team is more likely to sign an undrafted player that develops to a Pro Bowl level than spend any draft pick on these positions: FB, K, P, LS

The data shows that if our team has an opportunity to use a mid-to-late round draft pick to trade for a player that can perform at a high level, based on the criteria above, we would be more likely to see a positive return in that trade. Along with this, I analyzed which College Football programs and conferences have produced the most drafted and undrafted Pro Bowlers and 1st Team All-Pro players over the last 23 years. An interesting thing to note was that both 2019 and 2020 (covid affected years) had the lowest output since 1997 in terms of developing Pro Bowl and 1st Team All-Pro players. We may see these players begin to earn Pro Bowl nods as they continue to get more in-person reps. I would love to share my data file to further dive into the data with anyone interested.